A survey firm asked pastors who they’ll vote for. Nearly a quarter wouldn’t say

The biggest surprise in a new survey on who Protestant pastors plan to vote for in the 2024 election isn’t the share of respondents who support former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.
The surprise is the share of pastors who wouldn’t say.
Nearly one-quarter of the surveyed faith leaders (23%) refused to answer the question about whom they’ll vote for, according to Lifeway Research’s survey report.
The group of refusers is much bigger today than it was during the past two elections.
In 2016, just 3% of surveyed pastors wouldn’t give an answer, and 4% wouldn’t in 2020. The figure is up to 23% in Lifeway Research’s latest survey.
“We ask pastors about many things going on in the culture today and they are willing to provide their opinion. However, the growing number of pastors unwilling to respond with their voting intentions shows how sensitive or divisive politics has become in some churches,” said Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research, in a press release.
Among the pastors who were willing to name their preferred candidate, 50% said they plan to vote for Trump.
That’s about the same share of pastors who backed Trump in the lead-up to the 2020 election (53%), Lifeway Research reported.
The 2020 survey found that 21% of Protestant pastors supported President Joe Biden. The group of pastors who now plan to vote for Harris is about the same size, at 24% of respondents.
Lifeway Research’s survey further confirms some well-established truths about religion and politics — evangelical Protestants generally support Republican candidates, while the political preferences of mainline Protestants are harder to predict.
“Self-identified evangelical pastors are more likely to vote for Trump (61%), while half of mainline Protestant pastors (50%) say they support Harris,” Lifeway Research reported.
The survey also showed that 23% of pastors who plan to vote in the 2024 election are still undecided.
“No third-party candidate garnered more than 1% support,” per Lifeway Research.
In general, American pastors are a lot like other Americans in the sense that they typically support whoever their party nominates.
In other words, pastors who identify as Republican plan to vote for Trump and pastors who identify as Democrat plan to vote for Harris.
“Out of all the descriptors of pastors, their own political party preference is the best predictor of how they will vote,” McConnell said in the press release.
But large majorities of Protest pastors do pay close attention to a few specific political issues, according to Lifeway Research.
“Around 4 in 5 say they are looking for a candidate with the ability to maintain national security (85%), the ability to protect religious freedom (84%), the position on foreign policy (83%), the ability to improve the economy (83%), the position on immigration (81%), the position on abortion (80%) and personal character (79%),” the survey report said.
When asked to choose the one factor that’s most important to them from the list of 11 options provided by Lifeway Research, “24% say personal character, 18% say the candidate’s position on abortion, 16% say the ability to protect religious freedom and 12% say the ability to improve the economy,” the survey found.
Protestant pastors who plan to vote for Trump were particularly likely to highlight religious freedom, national security, the economy, abortion and immigration as important issues, while pastors who plan to vote for Harris were the more likely to emphasize personal character, racial justice and climate change, according to Lifeway Research.